The recent developments have seen North Korea become increasingly important to Russia, particularly through arms deliveries. This has shifted China’s stance on the situation, as it has reluctantly accepted this shift. However, the main question now is whether North Korea will become more aggressive or seek peace.
In mid-April, Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhao Leji visited Pyongyang, although details of the discussions were not made public. Experts speculate that the visit may have been related to preparations for a summit between North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and China’s Xi Jinping. This summit could further solidify China’s position as a key player in North Korea’s future.
China is reportedly concerned about the growing closeness between North Korea and Russia, especially as North Korea has been supplying weapons for Russia’s war against Ukraine. This partnership has led to fears in China of losing influence over North Korea. There are also concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promised return visit to North Korea could further solidify this relationship. Despite its reservations, China continues to provide support to North Korea with reservations, as it balances concerns about international criticism with its own interests.
North Korea’s status as a self-proclaimed nuclear power and their declaration of South Korea as their main enemy adds to the complexity of the situation. Kim Jong Un’s ability to trigger crises or wars is heightened by his alliances with China and Russia. The dynamics of this alliance triangle are being reshaped by the Ukraine war, creating uncertainty about North Korea’s next moves.
Russia’s role as an enabler for North Korea’s provocations is significant. The war in Ukraine has strengthened North Korea’s position, as Russia provides support in the form of food, energy supplies, and technical assistance. Despite concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program, Russia’s disregard for UN sanctions against North Korea has allowed for greater cooperation between the two countries. This cooperation could lead to further tensions with other countries in the region and beyond if not carefully managed.
Overall, whether or not North Korea chooses to provoke or maintain calm will depend on a complex interplay of factors involving global politics and regional alliances