The incident on June 17 in the South China Sea has strained relations between China and the Philippines, with Manila careful not to refer to a treaty that could escalate tensions further. According to American military-legal terms, China’s actions could be seen as a non-kinetic use of illegal force, even though the treaty’s definition of “armed attack” was not clear.
President Marcos emphasized that the Philippines did not want to start a war while speaking to troops in the area. Despite this, Manila tried to ease tensions in order to prevent a potentially serious conflict. However, China may view Manila’s cautious approach as favorable. By probing the “red line” between the US and the Philippines, Beijing gained valuable insights into Manila’s reluctance to escalate tensions and America’s hesitance to provide stronger support without invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty.
China also displayed its ability to disrupt Filipino actions and its superior escalation tactics. The stark capability difference between the two countries was evident when the Chinese coast guard vessel, weighing over 10,000 tonnes, was sent near the Sierra Madre outpost shortly after the conflict. This incident has highlighted the need for both countries to engage in diplomatic efforts to resolve their differences peacefully.