Japan registers two straight years of export development in February, outlook significantly less rosy

• Feb exports rise six.five%, undershoot forecasts
• Imports up eight.three%
• Japan posts trade deficit for 19th straight month
• China-bound shipments slide, stoke fears of worldwide downturn

TOKYO, March 16 (Reuters) – Japan posted two straight years of export gains in February, led by strong U.S.-bound shipments of vehicles, while expectations of a robust recovery in demand are speedily fading amid worldwide monetary tightening and worries about banks worldwide.

The world’s third-most significant economy has struggled to make a strong post-COVID recovery, undermined by lacklustre household consumption and a worldwide slowdown.

Slowing shipments to China, which fell for a third straight month, have also shattered policymakers’ hopes for a fast rebound from the pandemic doldrums.

The Ministry of Finance (MOF) trade information released on Thursday showed exports grew six.five% year-on-year in February, driven by U.S.-bound shipments of vehicles but undershooting a 7.1% enhance anticipated by economists in a Reuters poll. It followed a three.five% rise in the preceding month.

Exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading companion fell ten.9% year-on-year in February, registering a second straight month of double-digit decline, as demand weakened for vehicles, auto components and show-creating gear.

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Imports rose eight.three%, versus the median estimate for a 12.two% enhance, resulting in a trade deficit of 897.7 billion yen ($six.75 billion). The yen’s 13.five% depreciation versus the dollar produced the expenses of power imports even larger.

Japan has now posted a trade deficit for 19 straight months.

The Japanese economy narrowly averted a recession in the final months of 2022, as consumption remained weak though exports had been hampered by slowdown in worldwide development.

Monetary tightening across the planet, provide chain constraints and the Ukraine war have undercut Japan’s recovery.

“Possibilities are 50-50 that Japan may perhaps slide into recession,” mentioned Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Investigation Institute.

Much more optimistically, the major gauge of small business investment showed a robust reading, giving a glimmer of hope for a possible choose-up in private demand.

The information released on Thursday showed core machinery orders rose 9.five% in January from a month earlier, the most significant rise in much more than two years.

Ramping up investment to meet post-pandemic demand, service sector companies’ orders jumped 19.five% to a level final observed in November 2019.

Having said that, orders from manufacturing businesses fell two.six% dragged down by metal, electronics and auto firms due to the weak worldwide economy and decreased demand for semiconductors.

($1 = 132.9600 yen)

Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore

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