Iran’s Nuclear Deterrence: A Potential Shift Amidst Tensions with Israel

According to a recent statement by Adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Kamal Kharazi, Iran may need to adjust its nuclear doctrine if Israel poses a severe threat to the country’s survival. Kharazi clarified that while Iran has not yet made the decision to develop nuclear weapons, this stance may change in response to an existential threat. He warned that if Israel were to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, it could prompt a shift in Iran’s deterrence strategy.

General Ahmad Hajtalab of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who oversees nuclear development in the IRGC, also acknowledged the potential need to reassess Iran’s nuclear doctrine following a potential Israeli attack. Analysts suggest that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons and could become a nuclear power in the near future if the leadership decides to pursue this path. However, the final decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In April 2024, Iran launched its first independent attack on Israel, deploying numerous unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. The majority of these weapons were intercepted and destroyed by Israeli defenses. Reports from Western media outlets indicated that Israel responded with a limited strike aimed at demonstrating force rather than causing significant harm to Iran. The incident underscored the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the potential impact of these conflicts on Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

In conclusion, while Iran has not yet made any decisions regarding developing nuclear weapons, it remains possible that such developments could be necessary if Israel poses an existential threat to its survival. This is highlighted by recent events such as April 2024’s attack on Israel where various military weapons were targeted but mostly intercepted and destroyed by Israeli defenses.

Furthermore, General Hajtalab’s acknowledgement that there is a possibility for reassessment of Iran’s nuclear doctrine following an attack from Israel indicates that this topic remains open for discussion within Iran’s leadership circles.

Ultimately, any decision about developing or using nuclear weapons will be made by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after careful consideration of all factors involved.