Croatia is currently three points away from finishing 13th in the qualifications for major competitions since independence. The team has the opportunity to earn a point and qualify for the Euros by drawing with Turkey or winning against Armenia. However, the outcome of this match also determines Croatia’s placement in the final tournament.
If Croatia were to win against Armenia, they would remain in their current grouping and face off against Scotland, Slovakia, and possibly the Netherlands or Serbia. If they lose or draw, they risk ending up in the fourth round with a more difficult draw.
There are three other unknowns that could impact Croatia’s position before the additional qualifications draw on Thursday. Uefa ranks national teams based on their performance in qualifications, with superpowers such as Germany, Portugal, France, Spain, and Belgium leading the way. If qualifications ended today, Croatia would be placed third in a strong group alongside Scotland and Slovakia.
However, if Hungary and Austria win their matches against Albania and Romania respectively, Croatia may be placed in a weaker group with less favorable opponents for qualification to the Euros. If Turkey wins against Denmark or Albania while losing to Wales or Armenia respectively, Croatia will replace them in Group D.
Serbia is another team that could affect Croatia’s position if certain scenarios play out. If Slovenia wins over Kazakhstan or Moldova while Croatia defeats Armenia or loses to Wales respectively, Serbia will move into Group E and face off against Italy instead of Czech Republic or Greece. This would make it easier for Croatian fans to travel to Serbia for Euro matches.