As the world continues to grapple with economic uncertainty, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (ILEI) is being closely watched for signs of an impending recession. In October, the ILEI fell, and The Conference Board has stated that this could indicate a recession on the horizon. However, despite this decline, a recession has not yet occurred.
One reason for this is consumer spending remaining much stronger than anticipated by economists. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board believes that if a recession does occur early next year, it will likely be short-lived because there has been no significant decline in manufacturing or the housing market.
Meanwhile, U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics is no longer predicting a recession for this month. He still anticipates an increase in unemployment and softening labor conditions but now believes a soft landing is more probable. If economic data continues to surprise him, he may update his forecasts accordingly.
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